Research
Working Papers
[1] Erol, F. Bridging the gap: How mass-elite affective polarization congruence affects democratic attitudes.Abstract
Scholars have long assumed that alignment between citizens and elites strengthens democratic legitimacy, yet this relationship remains untested for affective polarization. This study introduces the concept of affective polarization congruence (the perceived emotional alignment between citizens and their party’s representatives) and tests its causal effects on democratic attitudes through a novel experimental design. In a pre-registered experiment, U.S. partisans received manipulated feedback about whether their representatives’ partisan affect exceeded, fell short of, or matched their own. Against theoretical expectations, participants in conditions portraying affective congruence as “healthy democratic responsiveness” showed significantly decreased support for democracy as a system of government. A composite measure combining democratic satisfaction and principled democratic support revealed similar erosion across multiple congruence conditions. These findings challenge conventional wisdom about representation, suggesting citizens may be growing weary of normalizing polarization, regardless of how it is framed. Even “democratically framed” emotional alignment appears to trigger democratic fatigue.Journal Articles
[5] Erol, F., Ecevit, Y. A., & Kocapınar, G. (2024). Polarization congruence and satisfaction with democracy: A multinational investigation. Electoral Studies. DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102796Abstract
The mass-elite congruence in politics is key to a healthy democracy. Existing research uses the match between citizens’ ideological positions and those of political elites and parties to assess satisfaction with democracy over time and across countries. However, mass-elite ideological congruence does not necessarily guarantee mass-elite overlap in ideological polarization, the implications of which for democratic satisfaction are little known. Accordingly, our article examines the link between the mass-elite ideological polarization congruence and democratic satisfaction in a multinational context. We reason that when polarized electorates feel let down by their parties’ depolarization, these ideologically polarized people would grow frustrated with the disconnected democratic system (seen as ineffective in meeting citizens’ expectations and delivering meaningful political alternatives). Then, we find that electorates who do not consider their affiliated parties to be as ideologically polarized as themselves tend to be dissatisfied with the way democracy works in their countries. Our additional inquiries suggest that this democratic dissatisfaction parallels ambivalence in democratic commitment. We also find that the perception of no differences between parties, and affiliation with populist and losing parties amplifies these disappointed polarized electorates’ dissatisfaction with democracy.[4] Erol, F. (2024). Threats and the conservative shift in public opinion: Comparative causal mediation analyses from Turkey. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies. DOI: 10.1080/14683857.2023.2189541
Abstract
How do mortality reminders and aroused mortality fear affect people’s conservatism? Threats-politics studies assume that life-threatening dangers, fear of death, and conservatism go together, overlooking the distinction between threat exposure and mortality fear arousal. Further, these studies commonly fixate on the conventional threat of terrorism and predominantly employ samples from Western countries. Complementing past research, I use three survey experiments in Turkey to investigate the relationship between a broad array of threats (terrorism, health risks, moral hazards, and daily thoughts of death’s inevitability), mortality fear induced by the threats, and self-rated conservative orientation in a causal mediation analysis framework, using the terror management theory and non-representative Facebook samples (2018, 2020). The results reveal that the respondents receiving threatening stimuli (particularly terrorism mortality reminder) become less conservative as the mortality fear elevates. The length of mortality priming and the broader study context influence this indirect effect’s significance and replicability.[3] Ksiazkiewicz, A., & Erol, F. (2022). Linking sleep, political ideology, and religious observance: A multi-national comparison. International Journal of Public Opinion Research. DOI: 10.1093/ijpor/edac020
Abstract
Sleep is fundamental to life and essential to one’s health behavior, scholastic achievement, and work performance. Recent years have seen an increase in empirical investigations incorporating sleep research into political science. This study complements existing sleep-politics studies by examining the associations between chronotype (a person’s preferred time to sleep and wake up) and attitudinal and behavioral political outcomes (left–right ideology and social conservatism proxied by religious service attendance). We analyze representative samples from 10 national contexts (Finland, Greece, Ireland, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Philippines, Russia, South Korea, and Switzerland) to test our hypotheses. The results demonstrate that morning chronotype has significant links with political conservatism in six national contexts depending on model specification (most robustly in Switzerland). Unexpectedly, the morning chronotype may have links to liberalism in three other countries depending on model specification (most robustly in Russia). The results for religious observance are more uniform, indicating a link between morningness and greater religious observance across all cases in many specifications (excepting a reversed relationship in New Zealand in some models). Urbanization, seasonal effects, geographical characteristics, and religious denominations are explored as potential confounders.[2] Ksiazkiewicz, A., & Erol, F. (2022). Too tired to vote: A multi-national comparison of election turnout with sleep preferences and behaviors. Electoral Studies. DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102491
Abstract
Receiving a healthy amount of sleep is essential to one’s quality of life. Both sleep-wake timing preferences (chronotype) and sleep duration are implicated in health, academic achievement, and workplace performance. This study complements the existing sleep–politics literature by examining the associations between sleep duration, chronotype, and turnout with a representative cross-national survey dataset from nine national contexts. Our analyses demonstrate that greater sleep duration is non-linearly related to higher turnout; those who sleep too little or too much are less likely to vote. The results also show that morning chronotype is associated with higher turnout, but controlling for religiosity attenuates this relationship. We argue that healthy sleep duration and chronotype lay at the intersection of the socioeconomic and psychological resources necessary to participate in elections.[1] Erol, F. (2022). Terrorism mortality salience manipulation: A causal mediation analysis. Terrorism and Political Violence. DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2022.2060081
Abstract
Building upon past findings on terrorism and individual-level politically conservative self-identification, I evaluate the effect of terrorism mortality reminders on conservative self-placement with three survey experiments, using non-representative Facebook samples in Turkey (2018, 2020). The scant existing experimental findings outside the usual Northwestern European and North American environment make it difficult to assess how the context (e.g., the longevity and diversity of terrorism problems in a country) can explain the alignment between terrorism threats and conservatism. In non-Western areas such as Turkey, with various types of terrorism over time, the link between terrorism threat and conservatism may remain uniform. However, the fear of death in a terrorist attack elicited by the terrorism mortality salience would create psychological strain and make individuals suppress terrorism-related death-thoughts by moving away from conservatism, reminding them of the human body’s vulnerability to threats and igniting fearfulness. Using the Terror Management Theory perspective, this study explored the causal mechanism running from terrorism mortality reminder to terrorism mortality fear to conservative self-identification. In all three studies, conservatism decreased when the respondents felt fearful of terrorism mortality and the treated respondents became more conservative if the terrorism mortality fear was kept at its average value (as a covariate).Selected Research in Progress
[5] Erol, F., Ksiazkiewicz, A., & Micatka, N. K. Waking up to politics: How sleep quality relates to political participation.Abstract
Getting restful sleep is essential to people’s academic achievement, cognitive functioning, life satisfaction, mental and physical health, pro-sociality, and vigilance. Our study translates these insights for political science by examining the relationship of sleep quality with turnout and non-electoral participation across the fourteen countries in four major datasets. Using a multilevel approach, we find that getting good sleep is strongly linked with a higher likelihood of turnout, with sizeable effects. Conversely, we find that poor sleep quality motivates greater non-electoral political participation. Additional analyses contrast past work on sleep quantity and indicate greater relative explanatory power for sleep quality over quantity on turnout. We also find that these results are robust to asynchronous timing between sleep quality and civic participation measures. We argue that creating societies where high-quality sleep is accessible to the public is vital to the sustainability of democratic regimes.[4] Erol, F., Grillo, M. C., & Christman, S. D. Hands on politics: Unpacking the link between handedness and ideological orientation in a multilevel framework.
Abstract
We examine the relationship between handedness and ideological orientation using comprehensive cross-national panel data from 19 European countries in a multilevel framework through two complementary theoretical frameworks: motivated social cognition and cognitive inflexibility. Our findings reveal a robust association between self-reported right-hand dominance and conservative political orientation, with effect sizes comparable to established personality predictors like Openness. More intriguingly, we uncover a U-shaped relationship between consistent handedness (measured via grip strength asymmetry) and ideological extremism, suggesting that individuals with pronounced hand dominance—whether left or right—exhibit greater propensity toward extreme political positions. This pattern supports theories linking cognitive inflexibility to authoritarianism across the ideological spectrum. Additional analyses reveal important conditional effects: the handedness-ideology relationship is moderated by Conscientiousness, with highly conscientious individuals showing stronger rightward shifts when right-hand dominant. Gender also conditions the extremism relationship, with women displaying greater sensitivity to handedness effects. These results provide the first large-scale, cross-national evidence that biological asymmetries may systematically relate to political cognition. Our findings suggest that embodied cognition theories merit serious consideration in political psychology. The study advances understanding of how fundamental neurobiological differences might contribute to political polarization and ideological sorting in democratic societies.[3] Ksiazkiewicz, A., & Erol, F. Where you stand depends on when you sleep: A cross-lagged panel model analysis of the interplay between chronotype and political ideology.
Abstract
Chronotype (preferred sleep/wake schedule) influences various life outcomes. Recent studies associate morning types with political conservatism across several democracies, but the causality between chronotype and ideology remains unclear. We examine four theoretical possibilities: chronotype predisposes people toward certain political beliefs; political ideologies shape sleep-wake preferences; shared genetic characteristics influence both; or reciprocal causation exists between them. Using cross-lagged panel model analysis with the Add Health dataset, we test these causal pathways. Our results support a unidirectional influence: chronotype significantly predicts political ideology during the transition from adolescence to adulthood. Specifically, morning-type individuals tend to develop more conservative self-identification over time. We find no evidence for reverse causality (ideology predicting chronotype), genetic confounding, or reciprocal causation. These findings highlight the importance of biological rhythms in shaping political belief systems, though they should be replicated in other longitudinal studies and experimental research.[2] Groman, J., Erol, F., & Braithwaite, A. From conflict zone allies to welcome home, allies: How Afghan immigrants’ collaboration with the U.S. affects public attitudes towards immigration.
Abstract
Our research examines how combining past and potential future contributions to the host country would affect public attitudes toward immigration, using Afghan immigrants’ eligibility for U.S. Special Immigrant Visas as a case study. Our theoretical framework draws on deservingness perception to explain potential mechanisms for reducing anti-immigrant sentiment. Through two experimental designs - a vignette experiment, manipulating temporal framing in recommendation letters, and a conjoint experiment, randomizing immigrant attributes - we test whether highlighting both past service and future contribution potential would influence American citizens’ immigration attitudes and admission decisions. The vignette experiment finds significant changes in aggregate attitudes and affect across experimental conditions. Further, the effects in the vignette experiment are moderated by local immigration context and conceptions of national identity and party identification. The conjoint experiment reveals that emphasizing both past and future contributions strengthens admission prioritization in forced-choice comparisons but does not boost absolute admission ratings. Our results contribute to understanding how temporal perspectives might shape immigration attitudes and carry implications for policy communication and immigrant admission processes.[1] Erol, F. Nothing good comes out of death? The effects of anthropocentric and ecocentric mortality salience on climate change beliefs and policy preferences.